How accurate are NHL odds? To assess this, we review roughly 7,000 individual outcomes over several seasons to understand the predictive power of the odds given to individual NHL games.
By bucketing each team’s odds in each match-up into 25 buckets with each bucket containing roughly 275 games we can look at the range of odds in the bucket, the average odds in the bucket, and the percentage of games in each bucket that won (i.e., win percentage).
As a reminder, the most common NHL bet is a moneyline bet where a wager is placed on a team to win and the odds placed based on the required risk to win a unit. For example, a team favored might be -210 which requires $210 to be risked to win $100, while an underdog might be +150 which requires $100 risked to win $150.
The general trend is that the higher the odds (lower the number) the more likely the team is to win. However, it doesn’t move in lockstep with each bucket. But of the 578 games with the team favored by -200 or more the teams won 66% and of the 203 games with the team favored by +200 or less the underdog won only 34% of the games.
| Odds Range | Average Odds | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| -400 to -220 | -258 | 68% |
| -220 to -200 | -206 | 64% |
| -200 to -175 | -182 | 68% |
| -175 to -165 | -169 | 61% |
| -165 to -155 | -160 | 63% |
| -155 to -150 | -152 | 57% |
| -150 to -140 | -144 | 58% |
| -140 to -135 | -138 | 62% |
| -135 to -130 | -132 | 53% |
| -130 to -125 | -126 | 52% |
| -125 to -115 | -120 | 51% |
| -115 to -110 | -115 | 48% |
| -110 to -110 | -110 | 51% |
| -110 to -105 | -105 | 50% |
| -105 to 105 | 89 | 50% |
| 105 to 110 | 106 | 48% |
| 110 to 115 | 112 | 44% |
| 115 to 120 | 118 | 42% |
| 120 to 130 | 124 | 40% |
| 130 to 135 | 132 | 44% |
| 135 to 145 | 140 | 38% |
| 145 to 155 | 149 | 39% |
| 155 to 170 | 161 | 32% |
| 170 to 180 | 173 | 35% |
| 180 to 320 | 216 | 33% |
Gamblers Analytics 